In his article, Stu Ostro seems to suggest that the remaining hurricane season will present numerous storms. The problem is his “evidence” is anecdotal by his own admission.

His charts or pictures or diagrams or whatever are quite telling. He suggests that 2008 looks very much like 2005 (which created Katrina and Rita). However, anyone can see that it doesn’t look the same. In fact, the gulf temperatures look very different. And, the SST’s off the coast of South America (in the pacific) are much higher this year. I fail to see what he sees. To be sure, he is a meteorologist. But, if his “proof” is in two pictures looking the same, they had better look the same.

I think the main problem is that forecasts of the weather more than just a few days out are wildly inaccurate. We can’t predict the precise path of a hurricane, or even how strong a hurricane will become with certainty. What makes people think that they can predict how many storms there will be in the future and where they will strike?

I fail to see the evidence for these types of assertions. I have mentioned before that Chaos theory suggests that the weather is much more complex than we think, and that accurate “forecasts” would require much more data and understanding than we currently have. I stand by that statement.

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